NBA 40-20 Rule, MVP Race Shake-Up, and the League’s Biggest Surprises

Shot Clock Pod - March 1, 2026 === ​[00:00:00] Jose: All right, it's time to talk basketball. I'm Jose Salviati, Editor at thePeachBasket.net. He is Steve Purciello, a longtime educator, vice-principal, high school basketball coach, athletic director, and also the host of Celtic Chalk Talk. Celtic Chalk Talk is a pod dedicated to the latest news and opinions surrounding the Boston Celtics from a lifelong fan, Steve, that pod drops new episodes every Monday, but this is the Shot clock pod, the best 24 minutes of random NBA thoughts online. Anywhere this podcast was born outta the contents of Steve's 13 rules random NBA Thoughts articles which he publishes weekly. Steve and I have exactly 24 minutes to discuss what's on his mind around the NBA today. We'll discuss his latest 13 rules, random NBA thoughts article where he shares his random thoughts after week 19. 20, 25, 26 NBA season. Seems like it's going really fast and we're in the stretch run for sure. If you got this far, please subscribe, comment, all that stuff means the world to us. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [00:01:00] Let's get into it. Steve, are you ready? Steve: Let's go. Jose: Let's do it. Clock is running. Alright, we start first with a spoiler alert. All right. Steve knows. Only one of three teams has a 91% chance of winning it all this season, so the drama is all gone. Tell us a little bit about how you know that and what those three teams are. Steve: Many years ago, Phil Jackson came up with a thought, and it's held it through the NBA, and fairly true. He said that a team's gotta win 40 before they lose 20 to be considered a title contender. Now over 45 years, four teams. One titles without doing that. Jose: Great. Steve: 90%. So Phil Jackson, pretty good idea about things when it comes to that. And one of the teams, I believe the 2021 Bucks was on a, an abbreviated season if I remember correctly. So really three and a [00:02:00] half teams. So he's been right and that, that makes Detroit, San Antonio. And Oklahoma as the three teams that would be favorites according to Phil Jackson. Which, which really, you know it's an interesting concept. It's something I never thought about but you know what, it might be it might have some truth to it. Jose: You can't argue with statistics. You can't argue with statistics 'cause statistic statistics can kinda manipulate data a little bit, but you can't argue with data, right? Numbers are numbers. Numbers are. Facts. And the fact is that this works 91% of the time. So let's dive into this a little bit. 'cause to me this is incredibly fascinating. The only three teams that have done that would mean the only three teams that stand a chance based on this 40 20 rule to win it all are the pistons, the thunder, and the spurs. Those would be my picks. So let's start there. Are those your three picks? Steve: I would think so. Yes, I would choose [00:03:00] them. It gets complicated. Let's just say that and I'm gonna throw something out there. If Tatum, first of all, Boston started the year oh and three and try to figure out where they were going. And then they, all of a sudden they're playing good basketball since if they didn't start oh and three, they would've prob, they would've hit it. If they won one of those three. Tatum comes back, it throw everything else out that went on. Because now you know you've got this star and if he can play as well as he has, you've got the star factor. It's like a team five years ago, getting LeBron after. At this point in the season, you're changing everything. So there is some exceptions, there's always the thought that the Knicks are gonna get it together. Because they have talent. So there, there's these thoughts. if you don't play it well in the regular season, you don't play it well in the playoffs, but there's all these different things and then of course Denver and what they can do and so on. So there's a lot of [00:04:00] factors. But yeah, I guess it I buy it as, those are the three best teams right now. So I buy it. Jose: Yeah. Honestly, I do too. It, it makes a lot of sense. I think the only thing that's gonna derail something like this from happening are injuries, right? Or people coming in like Jason Datum, which just throws everything for the loop be very interesting. And I think I'm gonna do this little later today. You mentioned four teams, you mentioned exceptions, the 95 rockets, the oh four pistons, the oh six heat, and the 21 bucks that you mentioned in that shortened season. Be very interesting to see as exceptions. What if there was something like that kind of derailed a favorite an injury or them getting a player back? Something like that. Steve: I'm gonna use the Pistons in oh four. Didn't they get Rashid Wallace that year Jose: Okay. Steve: trade in the middle of the year Jose: There you go. Steve: everything. Jose: There you. Steve: so I know that, the oh 5 0 6 heat, I believe a guy by the name of Riley [00:05:00] fired his head coach and took the job that year. So it gets, those are things that are above and beyond, so there, there were exceptions. The 94 95 rockets, I believe that's the team. I'm not, my memory's not great, but I believe they beat the Knicks in the playoffs, the 95 team. Riley was coaching that team, but they came from nowhere in the west to win the playoffs and they had Hakeem. And at that point he was probably, what's his name? Jordan was outta the game that year, The best guy in the league. There's little things that go into it. Jose: I can't believe you just, what's his name to one of the greatest NBA players of all time, Michael Jordan. Steve: Now, when he was out those two years, and by the way, and just something that just came to me, you wanna make a parallel? Here's a great parallel. The Bulls without Jordan and Boston without Tatum. Jose: Yeah. Steve: Think about that. Pippen took off. He was great that year. Jalen Brown has done it. It's Jose: Yeah. Steve: and they lost the [00:06:00] Bulls lost in the playoffs, I believe, to the Nixon six. the point being, it was completely unexpected how good they were. The bulls. Jose: Yeah. Yep. Another parallel, I'm pretty sure is true, Jason Tatum also could not hit the curve ball. I'm fairly confident. Steve: I, no, I don't think so either. I can't picture a six, nine guy trying to Jose: you can't argue with stats. Again, you can't argue with stats, but you can't argue with data. 91% of the time this works. So it seems 91% certain pistons, the thunder or the spurs are left in the LOB if there's no exception. Let's see how it plays out. I always enjoy when you do this. You highlighted a player to watch this week. This time it was Colin Gillespie. This is somebody whose name I've seen. I couldn't tell you what team he played on. Shame on me. Dunno anything about his game. But I have seen his name pop up a couple of times. Tell us a little bit about Colin Gillespie. Steve: of all, he's playing for Phoenix. They're a fun team. And right now Dylan [00:07:00] Brooks is out in Booker and that's they're in trouble without those two. They're the two best guys on the team. Just about Gillespie is a came outta nowhere. He can shoot, I believe he's a Villanova boy. He can shoot, And he's only playing 28 minutes, scoring 13.5 points. So not crazy. But what's fascinating is if you watch him, you realize it. He's a really good three point shooter and he's shooting over 42% with that. Now he's only getting 28 minutes. A guy that's playing a regular, not a star, but a good player is getting 35, 36. So now when you start, playing around with the numbers, you see something. Now the other piece is he's not making a lot of money. And he will be an unrestricted free agent. I don't think he's gonna get 30 million, but I would think he's gonna be around 15 next year. And it's coming from nowhere and every year there's a couple guys that are free agents or just not drafted or [00:08:00] second round picks. Remember Nicole Yoki? And all of a sudden they, and I'm not saying Gillespie's not near that level but what I'm saying is all of a sudden you see this guy and wow. He, he's way better than you thought, and could grow into really being a real good player. Jose: Yeah, and we talked about that a lot on the show. Getting the, the right situation for a player. The, the right team, the right coach, the right, the right situation. But somebody. Like that. Who's shooting you? You wrote down 42% from three. There are plenty of spots for somebody that efficient from three. So I, I think the way you ended your little segment on Colin Gillespie is perfect. He's about to get a pretty nice pay increase, Steve: he'll be in the NBA for a while. Jose: Good to see. I'm excited to watch him. Now that I know a little bit more about him, let's move on. This time to a team that is, is stuck, and this is probably the worst. I think for me as a fan, when my [00:09:00] team is good enough to compete but not good enough to win it all that, that middle of the road. It is the worst. And that's been the Timberwolves in the Anthony Edwards era. They're Anthony Edwards is an amazing talent. They're a good team, they're a playoff team, but they're not good enough to win it all. How close is that Timberwolves window to closing and for them to just admit it, it's not gonna work and blow it up. Steve: You've got new owners. Alex Rodriguez is one of them that don't have the money of the former owner. You've got a team. You've got na reed's making a lot of money. Jose: Yep. Steve: Randall making good money. Anthony Edwards making good money. Gobert making good money at some point. That ownership is gonna say, look, if we're not making any moves, there's a couple things we can do. We could fire a coach, of course, but more importantly, why do we have to pay these people? So maybe we deal one of them for [00:10:00] somebody who an expiring contract and we start. 'cause why do that? Now, if you do that, running the risk of Anthony Edwards saying, get me outta here. Jose: Yeah. Steve: you're running a lot of risks, but now let me just mention Anthony Edwards. Look, he's a great player. You watch him, he's great, but you know what the difference between and saying great. say very good. The difference between very good and great. Get your team to the finals. You got talent around, you get your team to the finals. If you don't, potential wasted. And that's, Jose: yep. Steve: is potential is not realizing that you did it. With Anthony Edwards there's a little bit of pressure this year. and let me just add right now, I believe they're sitting what, fifth in the conference. Am I correct? Jose: You're correct. Steve: yeah. So they would play the fourth team. If you look at it, and it could be Denver's third right now, but it could be Houston. They'd go in as underdogs. [00:11:00] So every team in the NBA right now in the in the west wants to finish in the top three. Why? Because the number six seed would probably be the Lakers. I don't see the Lakers putting up a lot of resistance against one of those good teams. you're fourth or fifth, you're playing another real good team because now after last week I said six, I'd narrow it down to five teams that have a chance of coming out of the west, and I don't put the Timberwolves too high up there Jose: Yeah. Steve: of those teams with a chance to come out. Jose: So let me ask a pointed question because you kinda, you circled it a little bit, but I'm gonna ask you straight up here is Anthony Edwards a superstar. Steve: That's a good question. He attracts attention. He's a fun player to watch. He's fun. Goes off in, in, in times that just take over games. He's unstoppable at times. The only thing I'll say is to become [00:12:00] a true superstar, you gotta win. You gotta win. And he's got the players around him. It's not like he's surrounded by, a bunch of guys that, that, can't play. You gotta produce and it's a tough league, tough division to, to have to produce in. Jose: So was that a yes or a no? Steve: I don't I would say he's a star. He's not a superstar. Jose: Okay. Okay. Steve: Until you do it an individual and you gotta win. You gotta win. Jose: Yep. When I look at the wolves from a big picture, right? First round exit in 22. First, first round, exit in 23. Then they improved, made to the Western Conference finals in 24 to lose. Got there again in 25 to lose. So you want to see. You getting better, right? You wanna see your team better? So what's next, right? It's, they've gotta be in the finals. Steve: get there. Jose: They gotta get there. Steve: I'm gonna give you something like here. If I were to say to you, how would you characterize Dominique Wilkins Jose: Oh, fun. Funnest player. Also [00:13:00] fun. I just did incredible, talented, fun player. Steve: is Jose: I using your criteria. No, he never got his. Steve: Your criteria, not mine. Yours, Jose: He's a top 75 player. Yeah, he's a superstar. Steve: okay. How many titles do you win? Jose: He didn't win any. Steve: Okay. I'm just, to me, what you said in the beginning, he was fun. Jose: He is super fun. Was Robert Orry a superstar? He won seven times. Steve: No. See, here's the difference. Robert Ory was never the best guy on his team. Jose: True. Steve: I'm talking about the best guy on a team. Jose: Okay. Steve: And they have to produce. That's what I'm saying. And you can argue back, like with Wilkins, they didn't have the best team in the league ever, and he didn't have enough talent around him. And I'm not gonna argue that, Jose: Yeah. Steve: and that was the days of Boston just nominating with Detroit. Jose: Right. Steve: But what I'm trying to say is the best player, if he's got some talent around him, he's gotta come up big.[00:14:00] Jose: Yeah. Yeah. And you can't deny that Anthony Edward has talent. He's got, a good coach. He's got good talent and he's taken his team to the Western conference finals. Now you gotta bust the door down. I agree with you. I agree with you. Let's talk about something that has, I'm glad you brought this up 'cause this has always been a sore spot with me. And that's the MVP race, right? The MVP has. Never been objective. It's always been subjective. It's, the team, the guy you like, the guy that you don't wanna vote for every year. It's it's just, it's, to me, it's silly. Is it the best player on the best team? Is it the best score? Is it the best facilitator? I is it the most dominant, take your pick, but this season it gets more interesting 'cause on top of all that subjectivity. Now you've got the 65 game rule, right? Which takes that's objective. You make that or you don't. You're in or you're out. But now because of that, some legitimate players who would normally be in the conversation [00:15:00] are out. So I think it's fascinating and it breaks it down. You broke it down really cleanly here. If you've got guys like YOIC and Shay. Who don't make it. Now you got guys like Cade Cunningham, who's incredibly fun to watch. Jalen Brown, who's taken the Celtics on his shoulder, and of course, Victor Wema, who could win the MVP in the defensive player of the year. How do you see it all shaking out? Steve: First of all, people will complain about the 65 game rule, but when you really start thinking about it, if you miss 18 games. That's over 20% of the games of a team. Jose: Yep. Steve: could you be the MVP when you've only played 78% of the games? I, you need to be there and play 90%, so that's the first thing. So I don't have a problem with the rule. A lot of people complain about it, but. And the interesting thing is, Wendy, if he misses four, I think he's got a problem. Jose: you said, yeah. Steve: So Yoic can only miss [00:16:00] one, and Sheik, I think six. So if they're knocked out of it, it gets fascinating about who is the MVP. And I do think Cade Cunningham deserves a lot more attention than he's getting Jose: A hundred percent. Steve: it, as does Jalen Bralet, I think Cade Cunningham because, and there's a reason. Jalen Brown's got a bunch of guys that can put the ball in the basket around him. doesn't. They defend and they follow his lead and he's really good. Where Brown, and Brown is learning how to give the ball up and play within the parameters of a team. And Brown's a good defender. But Cunningham with that team the best record in the league. And think about it, Doran, I think is scoring 18 a game after that you are hoping for Tobias Harris to come up big. you don't even know he's on the court Some nights he's really, he can play, but other nights. So what, where are you getting your offense? Duncan Robinson. That's where it is. And all they're doing is grinding and defending. So I look at Cade, although, and I think I [00:17:00] mentioned it, Len Bema, you know what, it's very interesting and let me ask you, if we, Bama the 70 65 Yage makes it. And Shea makes it, does we Wema have a chance to be the MVP? Jose: No, Steve: Why not? Jose: because the voter, the voters, again, they're gonna look. Steve: I said no. I, no. In your mind, let's change it. In your mind, does he have a chance to be the MVP? Okay. That's because, I'll tell you what, he's gonna be defensive player of the year if he makes it. And guy can change a game on both ends of the court. It's basketball's just gonna change with him because he's never have they seen, he's comparable. And if you younger people look up wilt and the numbers he put up because that's what we're talking about here. And just a reminder, wilt average 50 points a game one, so can understand. Jose: We [00:18:00] talked about this before. When it comes to Wendy, he's not the score. Wilt was, or even Kareem was at the start of his career, but he's he's definitely the shop blocker that either one of those two guys was, and he's a much better shooter from outside than any of those two guys ever was. Steve: Watch a game with San Antonio. will go to the basket and if, when Miyama is there, they immediately either will dribble it Jose: Yeah. Steve: kick it out. They don't want to even challenge him. Jose: Sure. Steve: It tells you, all you want. And there's one more thing too, at the end of a game, if you can not quite post him up, but put him at the foul line area and get him the ball, nobody can stop him. Who's big enough to stop his jump shot. Shooting a 15 footer with nobody and I've seen him do it with his team down and you know how you gonna stop that? Unless he brings the ball down and somebody can slap it Jose: Yeah. Steve: not much you can do. So I guess my point is, yeah, I don't know if [00:19:00] you can really stop this guy. Jose: No, I don't think anybody's anybody's done it consistently yet. I saw a little snippet of Russell Westbrook having some success against him. But a again, I, those are one-offs, right? This guy is too good and he's only gonna get better. Steve: Oh God. Yeah. Jose: Let's talk about Steve Bomber, his team. We mentioned him a little bit a little bit ago. The Clippers started off horrendously. They were six and 21. Let Chris Paul go. I think he's taking a little bit of the blame for that start. I don't know if that's right or wrong or not, but he's definitely taking a little bit of the blame here. And they've been great, really good since then because of James Harden and because of Kawhi Leonard. And then they booted James Harden. 'cause they need to get younger. This team is a desperate need to get younger. And generally when you get, and they did, I mean they got, yeah, they brought in Mather in they, they brought in Darius Scarlet. They got younger, but they didn't get better, which is weird. Do you think the Clippers are on the right [00:20:00] track? Steve: I think if they had their druthers, they would've kept hardened. I think the fact that he was asking to get next year guaranteed. It him outta there. So I think they would've taken their shot with him and this year's team. So I think Harden forced it and it was gonna happen. They weren't gonna bring Harden back obviously, 'cause they weren't gonna give him next year's salary contract. They weren't going to, do it. it was gonna happen. But I think they wanted to play the cards out with this group. And when Hardin pulled that, they got 'em out and then they said, okay, here we go. And then they got Mathen for Zoo bats. So now they're starting to, and don't forget, Mathen is I believe a restricted at the end of the year. The Clippers have a choice on that one. It gets interesting and Kauai's got one more year and where it is, there's a lot of teams within the league that would be love to trade for 'em. Jose: Yeah. Steve: It gets really interesting on what they'll do with that.[00:21:00] Jose: Yeah, I think the Clippers are at a bit of a crossroads now. Everything here, not just for the Clippers, but for every team, right? You've got your eras. You got, you had the Showtime era for the Lakers, the Lake Show era, and I think they do the same era for every team. So they called the Paul George Kawai Leonard, the 2 1 3 era. And that era is over. And then, they had a little bit of a resurgence with I think with Harden and Kauai. And, the fan base here is great. They've adopted them, but it's over. So I would not be at all surprised if Kauai has moved. It would be an expiring contract. He's still phenomenally good player. But I'm curious what kind of market there is for him. We talk about all the time you're getting somebody who's gonna play 50 games and maybe what gonna give up for that? Is there a market for Kauai? Steve: I think a team, yeah, I think team that's close will say the heck with the play regular season, we just get in. And this guy plays in the playoffs and he plays his 50 games. But when the [00:22:00] playoffs comes, we get, we have him, we have a chance. And off the top of my head, I'll use the team Cleveland just for the heck of it. Jose: Yeah. Steve: him with Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell can carry the load during the Jose: Yeah. Steve: and get you to third or fourth plays. And then you bring him in and at the end of the season, whoa. And look out. So they don't have the money right now unless they make a trade with, and the Clippers do need a center. So now you start thinking Jared Allen and another piece for Kauai. And it gets very interesting. Jose: Yeah. Steve: It's there for different teams. And the Clippers, the Cavs just came off the top of my head because the rumor also is some guy from the Lakers might be heading next year. I can't think of his name. Oh, LeBron. That's it. He might be going there. But I don't think they have the money to pay him. Jose: Wow. Can you imagine flipping LeBron for Kauai? That that, that would be pretty epic though. Steve: the interesting thing. LeBron, if he goes on the market, is not gonna [00:23:00] get the money, Jose: Sure. Steve: but he has an option for 50 million next year. People aren't thinking about that. Why wouldn't he say? And the Lakers have 'em for another year and it's just one more year where the Lakers are going nowhere. Speaking of the Lakers, I just wanted to, I don't know if you saw my little trivia question. Jose: I saw it. Steve: You wanna ask it? Jose: No, we're out of time. Steve: No. You can Jose: do Steve: You can just get that in. Jose: Nothing I can do. We're out time. Steve: Okay. I'll just mention it before we go. the only team above 500 giving up more points this season than scoring? Jose: No idea Steve: Above 500, the Lakers, that they're a defensive juggernaut. That's what I would say. But anyway that's that. Jose: Lake of fans. I tried. I tried, Steve was gonna get it in. Steve: It's a little, no, it's a really interesting stat because most times teams over 500 are scoring more than you're giving up. And it's really a good, [00:24:00] an interesting stat and it tells you, with the Lakers when they're playing this year, when they win they're winning close games and obviously getting bought out a lot. Jose: Yeah. Steve: And that's the, piece to it. Jose: That is undeniably correct and let's let's leave it at that. The the buzzer went off. That's it. Our time is up. Thank you for listening. Thank you for watching. Make sure to read Steve's entire 13 Rules around Thoughts article. We covered most of the topics, but we didn't cover 'em all. He also had some thoughts on the Atlanta Hawks to make sure to read that. And of course, join us next week for more NBA random thoughts as we recap. Week number 20. Talk then. Thanks Steve. Steve: Thanks.